Changes in long-term care insurance revenue among service providers during the COVID-19 pandemic.

BACKGROUND: The COVID-19 pandemic has impacted peoples' health-related behaviors, especially those of older adults, who have restricted their activities in order to avoid contact with others. Moreover, the pandemic has caused concerns in long-term care insurance (LTCI) providers regarding management and financial issues. This study aimed to examine the changes in revenues among LTCI service providers in Japan during the pandemic and analyze its impact on different types of services. METHODS: In this study, we used anonymized data from "Kaipoke," a management support platform for older adult care operators provided by SMS Co., Ltd. Kaipoke provides management support services to more than 27,400 care service offices nationwide and has been introduced in many home-care support offices. The data used in this study were extracted from care plans created by care managers on the Kaipoke platform. To examine the impact of the pandemic, an interrupted time-series analysis was conducted in which the date of the beginning of the pandemic was set as the prior independent variable. RESULTS: The participating providers were care management providers (n = 5,767), home-visit care providers (n = 3,506), home-visit nursing providers (n = 971), and adult day care providers (n = 4,650). The results revealed that LTCI revenues decreased significantly for care management providers, home-visit nursing providers, and adult day care providers after the COVID-19 pandemic began. The largest decrease was an average base of USD - 1668.8 in adult day care. CONCLUSION: The decrease in revenue among adult day care providers was particularly concerning in terms of the sustainability of their business. This decrease in revenue may have made it difficult to retain personnel, and staff may have needed to be laid off as a result. Although this study has limitations, it may provide useful suggestions for countermeasures in such scenarios, in addition to support conducted measures.

Development of a short form of the Japanese version of the Caregiver Reaction Assessment (CRA-J-10) among informal caregivers of older adults.

AIM: To support informal caregivers, a simple assessment tool capturing the multidimensional nature of caregiving experiences, including negative and positive aspects, is required. We developed a short form of the Japanese version of the Caregiver Reaction Assessment (CRA-J), a multidimensional assessment scale for caregiver experiences. METHODS: The internet survey involved 934 Japanese informal caregivers aged 20-79 years (mean age = 58.8 years; 50.2% women) who completed questionnaires, including the CRA-J 18 items (CRA-J-18), consisting of five domains, such as impacts on schedule and finances and positive experiences of caregiving. A 10-item short version of the CRA-J (CRA-J-10; 0-50 points), which was prepared by selecting the two items with the highest factor loadings from each domain, was tested for model fit by confirmatory factor analysis (CFA) and was analyzed for correlations with the CRA-J-18, Zarit Burden Interview (ZBI), Positive Aspects of Caregiving Scale (PACS), Patient Health Questionnaire-9 (PHQ-9), and WHO-Five Well-Being Index (WHO-5). The area under the curve (AUC) in the receiver operating characteristic was evaluated as discriminability for depressive symptoms (PHQ-9 ≥ 10 points). RESULTS: The CFA indicated a good model fit in the CRA-J-10. The CRA-J-10 correlated well with the CRA-J-18 and other variables (CRA-J-18, r = 0.970; ZBI, r = 0.747; PACS, r = -0.467; PHQ-9, r = 0.582; WHO-5, r = -0.588) and showed good discriminant performance for the presence of depressive symptoms (AUC = 0.793, 95% confidence interval = 0.762-0.823). CONCLUSIONS: The CRA-J-10 allows a simple assessment of caregiver experiences, helping support informal caregivers. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2024; 24: 290-296.

Effects of cost sharing on long-term care service utilization among home-dwelling older adults in Japan.

OBJECTIVES: This study aimed to examine the effect of increased cost sharing on long-term care (LTC) service utilization among home-dwelling older adults, using nationwide long-term care insurance (LTCI) claims data in Japan. METHODS: In August 2015, the coinsurance rate for Japanese LTCI increased from 10% to 20% for higher-income beneficiaries. We analyzed 27,911,076 person-month observations between April 2015 and July 2016 from 1,983,163 home-dwelling older adults (aged ≥ 65 years). We employed a difference-in-differences approach to estimate the effect of the increased coinsurance rate on overall LTC service utilization and for each of the four main service subcategories. The control group comprised those whose coinsurance rates remained at 10%. RESULTS: The treatment group, whose coinsurance rate increased, accounted for 9.6% of all participants. The raised coinsurance rate caused statistically significant reductions of 0.46% (95% confidence interval [CI]: 0.36%, 0.56%) and $25.7 (95% CI: $23.7, $27.8) in the percentage of utilization of LTC services and total monthly LTC expenditures per person, respectively. Service utilization decreased in each of the four service subcategories. CONCLUSIONS: The increased coinsurance rate resulted in statistically significant but small reductions in LTC service utilization overall and in each service type among higher-income home-dwelling beneficiaries. Requiring more cost sharing from higher-income individuals may alleviate the fiscal burden on LTC systems without serious reductions in service utilization.

Construction and evaluation of a prognostic risk assessment model of gastric cancer by using hypoxia features.

In this study, mRNA expression of gastric cancer tissue and clinical data of patients in TCGA-STAD dataset were used, together with the hypoxia-related gene sets in the MsigDB database, to screen hypoxia-related differentially expressed genes (DEGs) in GC. Thereafter, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses were carried out on hypoxia-related DEGs. The optimal feature genes related to prognosis were obtained to construct a prognostic risk assessment model. According to the model, the riskScore of GC patients was measured, and GC samples were assigned into high- and low-risk groups in accordance with the median riskScore. Based on the Kaplan-Meier curve and Receiver operating characteristic curve, validity of the prognostic risk assessment model was measured. Gene set enrichment analysis was performed on the two risk groups through Gene set enrichment analysis software. The results revealed that in the high-risk group, 9 signaling pathways were remarkably activated in several terms, like focal adhesion, extracellular matrix receptor interaction, Cell adhesion molecules cams, Cytokine-cytokine receptor interaction, TGF-beta signaling pathway, NOD-like receptor signaling pathway, JAK-STAT signaling pathway, Toll-like receptor signaling pathway and MAPK signaling pathway. In combination with riskScore and clinical factors, univariate and multivariate Cox regression analyses verified the independence of the model. Meanwhile, a nomogram was constructed to predict the 1-, 3- and 5-year survival of GC patients. The calibration curve indicated that the survival status predicted by the nomogram fitted better with actual survival status. On the whole, the prognostic risk model of GC on the basis of hypoxia-related genes demonstrated good predictive ability. It can provide more powerful technical support for clinicians to make prognostic determination and therapeutic plans.

Regional variation in long-term care spending in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Health inequalities are widening in Japan, and thus, it is important to understand whether (and to what extent) there is a regional variation in long-term care (LTC) spending across municipalities. This study assesses regional variation in LTC spending and identifies the drivers of such variation. METHODS: We conducted a cross-sectional study using publicly available municipality-level data across Japan in 2019, in which the unit of analysis was municipality. The outcome of interest was per-capita LTC spending, which was estimated by dividing total LTC spending in a municipality by the number of older adults (people aged ≥ 65). To further identify drivers of regional variation in LTC spending, we conducted linear regression of per-capita spending against a series of demand, supply, and structural factors. Shapley decomposition approach was used to highlight the contribution of each independent variable to the goodness of fit of the regression model. RESULTS: In Fiscal 2019, per-capita LTC spending varied from 133.1 to 549.9 thousand yen (max/min ratio 4.1) across the 1460 municipalities analyzed, showing considerable regional variation. The included covariates explained 84.0% of the total variance in LTC spending, and demand-determined variance was remarkably high, which contributed more than 85.7% of the overall R2. Specifically, the highest contributing factor was the proportion of severe care-need level and care level certification rate. CONCLUSIONS: Our results demonstrate that, even after adjusting for different municipalities' age and sex distribution, there is a large variation in LTC spending. Furthermore, our findings highlight that, to reduce the spending gap between municipalities, the issues underlying large variations in LTC spending across municipalities must be identified and addressed.

[Validation of using disqualification from long-term care insurance registry as a proxy of death].

Objectives　The national database for long-term care insurance (LTCI) of Japan (Kaigo DB) enables researchers to access comprehensive data from its LTCI registry, eligibility assessment records, claims for service usage, and information about service providers. However, studies regarding the death or mortality of beneficiaries cannot be conducted because Kaigo DB does not contain death records, and researchers are not allowed to link Kaigo DB to other databases, such as national death records. Therefore, we aimed to assess the validity of using an insurer's disqualification from an LTCI beneficiary as a proxy of death.Methods　We used 510,751,798 monthly beneficiary records between April 2007 and March 2017 from the LTCI registry, while excluding data for ineligible persons for LTCI benefit or those younger than 65 years. We identified insurer cases disqualified from LTCI beneficiaries and linked them to national death records using deterministic linkage methods by dates of birth and death, sex, and residence. We considered the cases as positive if they were disqualified and their record was linked to a death. We used sensitivity, specificity, positive predictive value (PPV), and negative predictive value (NPV) as validity indices.Results　We identified 5,986,991 (1.17%) disqualified and 5,295,961 death cases. Sensitivity, specificity, PPV, and NPV of disqualification for death were 100%, 99.86%, 88.46%, and 100%, respectively. After stratification, PPV of disqualification was between 85% and 88% before 2012, 91% after 2012, 91.9% in men, and 85.9% in women. PPV increased with age (65-69 years: 80.6%, 70-74 years: 86.7%, 75-79 years: 86.4%, 80-84 years: 86.7%, 85-89 years: 88.0%, 90-94 years: 90.6%, and 95+ years: 93.4%) and level of care needed (support level: 72.2%, care level (CL) 1: 79.7%, CL2: 85.9%, CL3: 89.3%, CL4: 92.3%, and CL5: 94.0%).Conclusions　Disqualification from the LTCI registry is an inappropriate measure to estimate mortality accurately because it has a 10% false-positive rate. However, it appears sufficiently valid to use disqualification as a proxy outcome of death, although the main effect or confounding of a possible predictor of death could be slightly underestimated.

The impact of additional payments on functional decline among long-term care health facility residents in Japan.

BACKGROUND: Additional payment approach has been one of the most important incentives in long-term care (LTC) systems for the past 20 years in Japan. OBJECTIVE: To estimate the effect of additional payments on functional decline in long-term care health facility (LTCHF) residents of Japan. DESIGN: A 24-month retrospective cohort study. SETTING AND SUBJECTS: Residents aged ≥65 years who were newly admitted to LTCHFs in the 2014 fiscal year. METHODS: National LTC claims data were linked to the survey of institutions and establishments for LTC. Competing risk regression was performed with functional decline as the primary outcome, and additional payments as exposure, controlling for individual and facility characteristics. The level of LTC needs certified in the LTC insurance system was applied as a proxy of functional ability. Death, hospitalisation, discharge to home and transfer to other LTC facilities were treated as competing events. Individual- and facility-level additional payments were presented as binary variables: being reimbursed or not during the follow-up period. RESULTS: At baseline, 146,311 residents from 3,724 LTCHFs were included. The vast majority of additional payments were associated with a lower risk of functional decline at follow-up. At the individual level, additional payment for pre/post admission instructions had the strongest association with a lower risk of functional decline. Despite this, only 8% of residents were reimbursed for this additional payment. At the facility level, residents in LTCHFs with additional payments for support for home-life resumption and nutritional management were associated with a decreased risk of functional decline. CONCLUSIONS: The results of our study may be of particular interest to policymakers in monitoring and evaluating additional payment approaches and provide insight into improving quality of care.

Trajectories of Long-Term Care Expenditure During the Last 5 Years of Life in Japan: A Nationwide Retrospective Cohort Study.

OBJECTIVES: Despite the significant utilization of long-term care (LTC) services at the end of life, evidence on the trajectory of LTC expenditure in later life is scarce. This study aims to identify distinct trajectories of LTC expenditure in the last 5 years of life and to examine whether these trajectories differ according to cause of death. DESIGN: A nationwide retrospective longitudinal cohort study based on linked data of National LTC Claims and the Japan's National Vital Statistic. SETTING AND PARTICIPANTS: Participants comprised decedents aged 70 years or older and who died in 2017. METHODS: We assessed 5 years of monthly LTC expenditure among participants and applied group-based trajectory model to identify distinct trajectories of LTC expenditure. Subsequently multinominal logistic regression analysis was performed to investigate how these trajectories vary according to cause of death. RESULTS: Among 1,124,335 decedents, 4 distinct trajectories of LTC expenditure were identified: persistently low (58.5%), late increase (9.8%), progressive increase then late decrease (8.8%), and persistently high (22.9%). Approximately 80.7% of total LTC expenditure was spent by the persistently high group. After adjustment for age and sex; deaths due to age-related physical debility and dementia were associated with persistently high LTC expenditure. CONCLUSIONS AND IMPLICATIONS: Ongoing discussions of LTC policy and reducing LTC expenditure may be more effective when emphasizing persistently high spenders. In addition, budget allocation for LTC at the end of life should be combined with data for health conditions.

Change of Use in Community Services among Disabled Older Adults during COVID-19 in Japan.

During the COVID-19 pandemic, social interactions were restricted, including community services for disabled older adults. This study aimed to describe the change of use in community services related to long-term care insurance (LTCI) during the pandemic in Japan. A retrospective descriptive study was conducted using data collected via a cloud-based management support platform for older adult care provider "Kaipoke", by a private-sector company "SMS Co., Ltd.", in which care-managers of LTCI manage their office work. Data collection occurred from July 2019 to June 2020. Study subjects were LTCI service users aged 65 years and above. Subjects were living at home. We examined changes in the number of users of LTCI services before and after the COVID-19 pandemic began, using an interrupted time-series analysis. Results indicated that the use of outpatient services was reduced; however, home-visit services were maintained. The decrease in use was significant in the seven prefectures where the infection initially spread. There are concerns that older adults or surrounding caregivers can be affected by such changes in LTC service use. It is therefore necessary to implement sustainable measures from a long-term perspective and investigate their influence as part of future studies.

Comparison of progression of care-need levels among long-term care recipients with and without advanced care management in a rural municipality of Japan: A population-based observational study.

BACKGROUND: Little is known about the association between advanced care management and patient outcomes in home settings. In 2009, the Japanese government introduced a financial incentive scheme for advanced care management by long-term care agencies with at least one advanced care manager. However, it remains unclear whether advanced care management in rural areas is associated with improved outcomes for recipients. OBJECTIVE: To compare the progression of care-need levels among long-term care recipients in home settings with and without advanced care management. DESIGN: A population-based observational study. SETTING: A rural municipality in Japan. PARTICIPANTS: Recipients of long-term care (n = 2005). METHODS: We used individual-level secondary data provided from a rural municipal government that was collected as part of the Survey of Long-Term Care Benefit Expenditures and medical care claim records between April 2012 and March 2017. We linked these two databases using unique identifiers. The inclusion criteria for study subjects were that they: (1) were aged ≥65 years; (2) were newly certified as care-need level 1, 2, or 3; and (3) used long-term care insurance services in home settings from April 2012 through March 2017. We excluded individuals using long-term care insurance services for less than six months. Ultimately, we selected 1722 propensity-matched recipients with and without advanced care management, and then conducted Kaplan-Meier survival analyses and a log-rank test. The outcome measure was progression of care-need levels. RESULTS: The proportions of five-year cumulative progression-free survival in the groups with and without advanced care management were 50.3% and 42.2% for recipients of care-need level 1 (p < .01), 34.3% and 32.3% for recipients of care-need level 2 (p < .01), and 22.3% and 24.5% for recipients of care-need level 3 (p > .05), respectively. The progression-free period lasted a median of 12 (interquartile range, 10-24) months for recipients of care-need level 1, 14 (interquartile range, 11-28) months for recipients of care-need level 2, and 12 (interquartile range, 10-24) months for recipients of care-need level 3. CONCLUSIONS: Long-term care recipients with advanced care management in home settings had a higher probability of progression of care-need levels in a rural municipality of Japan. This finding suggests that the governmental policy of providing financial incentive for advanced care management may not be effective in improving the outcome of long-term care recipients in a rural municipality of Japan.

Individual and regional determinants of long-term care expenditure in Japan: evidence from national long-term care claims.

BACKGROUND: Japan, with the oldest population in the world, faces a financial challenge caused by rising long-term care (LTC) expenditure. For policymakers to address this, it is important that we have a better understanding of how individual and regional characteristics affect LTC expenditure. METHODS: We linked national LTC insurance (LTCI) claim data, covering the entire population who used LTCI services in Japan, with municipality data on an individual level. Individuals 65 years and older (n=3 876 068) who had used LTCI benefits at least once in the fiscal year (FY) 2016 were included. We examined the associations of individual and municipality characteristics regarding supply and demand of healthcare with the LTC expenditures on facility care, home and community care, and total care (the sum of both types of care), after adjusting for regional differences in LTC extra charges. RESULTS: The following variables were associated with higher total expenditure; at the individual level: female, a higher care-need level, a lower income (0% co-payments) or a facility service user; at the municipality level: municipalities locating in metropolitan areas, with a higher proportion of single elderly households, more doctors per 1000 citizens, more nursing homes per 100 000 LTC benefit users or more outpatient medical spending per citizen ≥75 years old. CONCLUSIONS: As we are able to identify several individual and municipality characteristics associated with higher LTC expenditure in Japan, the study offers insights into dealing with the rapidly growing LTC expenditure.

The associations of multimorbidity with the sum of annual medical and long-term care expenditures in Japan.

BACKGROUND: The occurrence of multimorbidity (i.e., the coexistence of multiple chronic diseases) increases with age in older adults and is a growing concern worldwide. Multimorbidity has been reported to be a driving factor in the increase of medical expenditures in OECD countries. However, to the best of our knowledge, there is no published research that has examined the associations between multimorbidity and either long-term care (LTC) expenditure or the sum of medical and LTC expenditures worldwide. We, therefore, aimed to examine the associations of multimorbidity with the sum of medical and LTC expenditures for older adults in Japan. METHODS: Medical insurance claims data for adults ≥75 years were merged with LTC insurance claims data from Kashiwa city, a suburb in the Tokyo metropolitan area, for the period between April 2012 and September 2013 to obtain an estimate of medical and LTC expenditures. We also calculated the 2011 updated and reweighted version of the Charlson Comorbidity Index (CCI) scores. Then, we performed multiple generalized linear regressions to examine the associations of CCI scores (0, 1, 2, 3, 4, or ≥ 5) with the sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures, adjusting for age, sex, and household income level. RESULTS: The mean sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures was ¥1,086,000 (US$12,340; n = 30,042). Medical and LTC expenditures accounted for 66 and 34% of the sum, respectively. Every increase in one unit of the CCI scores was associated with a ¥257,000 (US$2920); 95% Confidence Interval: ¥242,000, 271,000 (US$2750, 3080) increase in the sum of the expenditures (p < 0.001; n = 29,915). CONCLUSIONS: Using a merged medical and LTC claims dataset, we found that greater CCI scores were associated with a higher sum of annual medical and LTC expenditures for older adults. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first study to examine the associations of multimorbidity with LTC expenditures or the sum of medical and LTC expenditures worldwide. Our study indicated that the economic burden on society caused by multimorbidity could be better evaluated by the sum of medical and LTC expenditures, rather than medical expenditures alone.

Correction to: Estimated expenditures for hip fractures using merged healthcare insurance data for individuals aged ≥ 75 years and long-term care insurance claims data in Japan.

The article Estimated expenditures for hip fractures using merged healthcare insurance data for individuals aged ≥ 75 years and long-term care insurance claims data in Japan.

Estimated expenditures for hip fractures using merged healthcare insurance data for individuals aged ≥ 75 years and long-term care insurance claims data in Japan.

Little is known about hip fracture expenditure in Japan. Using claims data obtained from a core city near Tokyo, we estimated the mean healthcare expenditure and monthly long-term care expenditure post-hip fracture to be ¥2,600,000 (US$29,500) and ¥113,000 (US$1290), respectively. PURPOSE: We aimed to estimate healthcare and long-term care expenditures post-hip fracture in Japan. METHODS: Healthcare insurance claims data for adults aged ≥  75 years were merged with long-term care insurance claims data. We analyzed the data of hip fracture patients who were admitted to non-diagnosis procedure combination/per-diem payment system (DPC/PDPS) hospitals in a core city near Tokyo between April 2012 and September 2013. We estimated healthcare expenditure, namely, the difference between total payments 6 months pre- and 6 months post-hip fracture, and monthly long-term care expenditure for those who did not use long-term care insurance pre-hip fracture, but who commenced long-term care insurance post-hip fracture. We also performed multiple linear regressions to examine the associations of healthcare or long-term care expenditure with various factors. RESULTS: The estimated mean healthcare (n = 78) and monthly long-term care (n = 42) expenditures post-hip fracture were ¥2,600,000 (US$29,500) and ¥113,000 (US$1290), respectively. In multiple linear regressions, healthcare expenditure was positively associated with longer duration of hospital stay (p = 0.036), and negatively associated with higher Charlson Comorbidity Index scores (p = 0.015). Monthly long-term care expenditure was positively associated with higher care-needs level post-hip fracture (p = 0.022), and usage of institutional care services (p < 0.001). CONCLUSIONS: This is the first study to estimate healthcare and long-term care expenditures post-hip fracture using claims data in Japan. Further studies are needed that include healthcare claims data at both DPC/PDPS and non-DPC/PDPS hospitals to capture the lifelong course of long-term care required post-hip fracture.

Resident and facility characteristics associated with care-need level deterioration in long-term care welfare facilities in Japan.

AIM: To determine the resident and facility characteristics associated with residents' care-need level deterioration in long-term care welfare facilities in Japan. METHODS: A nationally representative sample of 358 886 residents who lived in 3774 long-term care welfare facilities for at least 1 year from October 2012 was obtained from long-term care insurance claims data. Facility characteristics were linked with a survey of institutions and establishments for long-term care in 2012. We used a multilevel logistic regression according to the inclusion and exclusion of lost to follow-up to define the resident and facility characteristics associated with resident care-need level deteriorations (lost to follow-up: the majority were hospitalized residents or had died; were treated as deterioration in the including loss to follow-up model). RESULTS: Adjusting for the covariates, at the resident level, older age and lower care-need level at baseline were more likely to show deterioration in the care-need level. At the facility level, metropolitan facilities, unit model (all private room settings) and mixed-model facilities (partly private room settings) were less likely to experience care-need level deterioration. A higher proportion of registered nurses among all nurses was negatively related to care-need level deterioration only in the model including lost to follow-up. A higher proportion of registered dietitians among all dietitians and the facilities in business for fewer years were negatively associated with care-need level deterioration only in the model excluding lost to follow-up. CONCLUSIONS: The present study could help identify residents who are at risk of care-need level deterioration, and could contribute to improvements in provider quality performance and enhance competence in the market. Geriatr Gerontol Int 2018; 18: 758-766.